Recent trends in the Chinese economy have garnered a lot of attention. China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has made the decision to drastically cut its short-term policy rate, likely reflecting the rapid deterioration of key indicators of the Chinese economy. In particular, the suspension of the release of China’s youth unemployment rate has added to concerns about the future of the Chinese economy. This situation is also of great concern to economic experts inside and outside of China.
Analyze key indicators of the Chinese economy
Looking at China’s July retail sales and industrial production data, we can get a sense of the current state of the Chinese economy. Retail sales rose 2.5% year-over-year in July, but the increase was below market expectations. Retail sales represent changes in sales at various types of retail stores, such as department stores and convenience stores, and can be seen as a barometer of the domestic economy. Additionally, industrial production in July only grew 3.7% year-over-year, which was also below expectations. These indicators clearly show a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Real estate market crisis
China’s real estate market has also been hit hard. The contraction in the real estate market continues, with real estate development investment in January-July down 8.5% from the same period a year earlier. Indicators related to the real estate market are also showing signs of weakness, especially as the default crisis of large Chinese real estate developers is spreading rapidly. This is adding to concerns about the stability of the Chinese economy.
Relevance to the United States
A slowdown in the Chinese economy is expected to have an impact on the U.S. economy, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has pointed to a slowdown in China as a risk to the U.S. economy. The U.S. and China are deeply connected economically, so fluctuations in the Chinese economy can have a significant impact on the U.S. economy. As a result, economists in the U.S. are also watching China’s economy closely.
